In This Month’s Newsletter
- Ol’ Jeb’s commentary about April’s stock market
- Why are we doing so good, but feel so bad?
- When are you considered “Upper Middle Class?”
- Gen Z saving more than their parents?
- Don’t slurp your soup in New Jersey (under penalty of Law)
Market and Performance Update with Ol’ Jebidiah, the Hillbilly Sage –
Howdy, Folks. Ol’ Jeb just sittin’ here on my front porch, lookin’ out over the Blue Ridge and enjoyin’ God’s creation. Pull up a chair and sit here with me for a little bit and we’ll sift through all the market news from last month.
If there’s one thing you learn from watching the seasons change year after year, it’s that you can’t always trust a sunny morning to stay dry. April was exactly that kind of month for the markets—a whole lot of twists, turns, and sudden gusts of wind, but not much rain (literally).
Whether you’ve been navigating these financial waters for decades or you’re just now getting a handle on your retirement or investment strategy, this past month had enough chop to make anyone a little seasick. But instead of getting caught up in the panic, let’s sit back, look at the plain facts, and make some sense of what actually drove the bus these past few weeks.
1. Trouble Overseas and Pain at the Pump
You just can’t talk about April without looking at the ruckus across the pond. The ongoing troubles in the Middle East—especially around the Strait of Hormuz—kicked up a lot of dust that blew right into our own backyards.
· Black Gold: We saw oil prices shoot up, crossing that $110 a barrel mark late in the month.
· The Ripple Effect: It’s simple math: when it costs more to fuel the trucks and the tractors, it costs more to buy groceries and run a business.
· The Reality: The markets get mighty skittish when they don’t know what’s coming next. All that geopolitical uncertainty put a heavy ceiling on how fast the market could bounce back from March’s lows.
2. Big Tech’s Report Card
Late April brought us the biggest earnings week of the season. The heavy hitters—those big tech giants that folks are always hollering about—had to open their books. What we learned is that while high-tech is still the big engine pulling the train, folks are finally starting to ask how much the coal costs.
· The High Notes: Companies like Alphabet showed mighty fine numbers, proving that their cloud businesses are still growing strong.
· The Stumbling Blocks: Others, like Meta, took a nasty tumble. They made good money, but they let slip that they’re fixin’ to spend a whole lot more on building out their tech infrastructure. Investors got real nervous about that hefty price tag.
· The Takeaway: It’s a high-tech world, but it still requires a high-touch, and careful eye to make sure you aren’t overpaying for tomorrow’s promises.
3. Sticky Prices and Stubborn Bankers
With oil and raw materials costing an arm and a leg, inflation is proving to be stickier than pine sap on a humid afternoon. Because of that, the folks at the Federal Reserve are holding their horses.
Interest Rates: They aren’t cutting rates right now. The risk of prices bubbling back up is just too high for them to loosen the reins.
What it means for you: Borrowing money is going to stay expensive for a good while longer. In times like these, passive, set-it-and-forget-it strategies usually take a beating. It’s why those boys down the hill in Spartanburg are keeping a close eye on everything with their active investment management, you know, the ones my good friend Noel talks about, along with his solid, dividend-paying strategies. Having people like those fellows over at ProVest is mighty vital to weathering the storm.
Where We Go From Here
I’m not here to ring an alarm bell or tell you to go sell the farm. Making rushed moves out of fear usually just ends up lightening your wallet.
If you’re feeling a bit uneasy about where your money is sitting right now, that is a completely valid and natural response to a choppy month. The best thing you can do is take a quiet breath and look at the truth of your current position. If you’re okay with it, fine. Sit tight. If you’re nervous about it, I suggest you take that what they call a ‘smart phone’ and do something smart with it. Call Noel or Gabe at ProVest and arrange a good time to go in and see one of em’. Either one will be good at helping you crunch the numbers and deciding what’s right for you. Those boys are good that way.
Well, that’s about all for this month. Y’all have a great May and I hope all those showers we were supposed to get in April show up this month.
Y’all be Safe now, ya hear? -Ol Jeb
Nature of Humans – Stock Prices and the Consumer Sentiment Index
“Consumer sentiment sank about 11% last month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.” (University of Michigan’s Joanne Hsu).
But the S&P 500 reached new highs in the same month. Folks, that’s the first time ever consumer sentiment dropped to a record low in the same month the S&P 500 touched a record high. (Source: Bespoke)
This is my question; WHY? Why do people feel SO bad about the economy when the economy is doing so GOOD? Okay, so nobody likes war! I don’t like it either. But, if we’re going to go to war, isn’t it better to go all-out and win it, rather than just give it a half-effort? If the reports are correct, Iran has no more navy or air force. Their war-making manufacturing capabilities have been severely degraded, and they have third-string leadership vying for control of the country. In other words, they’re a mess! Yet, some politicians are saying, with a straight face, that Iran is winning? Are you kidding me? And it seems like the news media is just following right along with that narrative.
So, I guess it makes sense that people feel so bad, yet have it so good. If enough people start telling you you’re sick, you’ll eventually start feeling sick. That is The Nature of Humans!
Interesting Economic Information –
- In 2024, 31% of American Families were considered Upper Middle Class, more than triple the 10% share in 1979. Over the same period, the share of families considered poor or near-poor fell from 30% to 19%. “Upper Middle Class” is defined as a family of three earning between $133,000 and $400,000 in 2024 dollars. (source: American Enterprise Institute)
- January was a record month for IRA contributions at Fidelity in terms of both dollar amounts and the number of contributors; through 3/20, contributions were up 30% versus last year. More interest in ROTH IRA’s and higher savings rates for GenZ are driving the retirement account growth. (source: MarketWatch)
- A new National Small Business Association survey showed an optimistic employment picture: nearly one-third of small businesses expect to grow headcount over the next 12 months, with more than half of those anticipating increases of at least 5%. (Source: NSBA)
- A survey of 750 CFOs found that AI had little to no negative impact on employment in 2025. It may have actually added jobs. A LinkedIn analysis found that, not including construction-related jobs tied to the data-center buildout, AI led to the creation of 640,000 new roles between 2023 and 2025. (Source: WSJ)
- After falling 9.9% from its 1/27 peak to its 3/30 closing low, it took just 11 trading days for the S&P 500 to recover all those losses. This was the fastest recovery to new 52-week highs after a 5%+ decline in the index’s history. (Source: Bespoke)
Calendar of Events
So far this year we’ve treated our clients to a movie with drink and popcorn, a health talk with a nutritionist and personal trainer, and recently we treated our clients and their guests to a wonderful presentation by one of our investment partners about the stock market, but we’re not done yet. Watch this space for more fun and educational events we will be having over the summer and fall. I can’t wait to tell you about them.
Useless Information, but Interesting nonetheless. (And my comments)
It is against the law to take a lion to the theater in Maryland. (I guess SOMEBODY in the Maryland legislature figured other patrons in the theater may be disrupted by having a lion sit beside them, so he took it upon himself to ramrod through this controversial legislation)
Brawley, California, passed a resolution banning snow within the city limits. (And they say city council members aren’t the sharpest knives in the drawer)
It is illegal in New Jersey to slurp your soup. (Can you imagine the legislature passing this and getting it to the governor’s desk for signing, and the governor looks at it and incredulously says “what’s this?” and the originator of the bill says, “well, governor, the citizens of our state are a bunch of slobs, so we need a law!”)
May the May sun brighten your day, and the May flowers delight your nose, and may all your hallelujahs, as always, be multiplied.
Humbly yours,
Noel ,Noel B. Swain, CFP®
Noel Swain is a Registered Principal with and Securities and Investment Advisory Services are offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc. member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor. ProVest Wealth Advisors is a full service financial services firm owned and operated by Mr. Swain, and based at 223 E. Blackstock Road in Spartanburg, SC, 29301. Visit our web site at www.provestwealth.com, or write to Noel at no**@***********th.com. You can reach us at (864) 582-7766. Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc. and all other companies and organizations mentioned this newsletter are not affiliated.
Securities offered through Registered Representatives of Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a broker-dealer member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser
Disclosure; The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange that is widely used as an indicator of market trends. The NASDAQ is an unmanaged stock index that analyzes all stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock market. These are “over-the-counter” stocks that are not listed on any of the major exchanges. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of common stock that tracks changes in stock prices of the 30 most significant and commonly traded U.S. industrial stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The performance of these indexes do not reflect any fees and charges associated with investing products. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Neither Cambridge Investment Research, Inc. nor its Representatives may offer tax and/or legal advice. Please consult your tax/legal adviser for guidance on you particular situation.
The articles above are written by and are the opinions of the staff at ProVest Wealth Advisors, Inc. and not those of Cambridge Investment Research, and they are for informational purposes only.
