Presidential Election Prediction


Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, published a study recently in which he said a simple equity-market chart has been the best predictor of U.S. presidential elections since 1984, proving 100% accurate—and is 87% accurate since 1928.The analyst says that a chart of the S&P 500’s performance in the three-month period ahead of Election Day, which is Nov. 3 this year, has proven accurate over the past nearly four decades. If the S&P 500 declines during this 3-month stretch, the incumbent party loses, but if the S&P 500 rises during this 3-month period, the incumbent party wins. On August 3rd, the S&P 500 finished at 3295. At the end of August, it stood at 3500.