April saw a return to new highs in the stock market, highs not seen since last September 20th for the S&P 500, and October 3rd for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. During that time stocks took a bath in the 4th quarter of 2018 and performed like a superstar in the first quarter of 2019. Ask me… go ahead and ask me if I knew that was going to happen. My answer is NO! I had no idea. Know who else didn’t have any idea? Everybody! Look at these two headlines from CNBC. “We are now in a bear market – here’s what that means.” – CNBC headline on December 24, 2018 “The stock market rally to start 2019 is one for the history books.” – CNBC headline on February 22, 2019
December 24th was the lowest point the market reached before it started going back up on the 26th. Then the market climbed steadily through January and February before slowing down in March. In April the indexes we follow pretty much finished making up for all they’d lost in the final quarter of last year. So now we seem to be back to where we were at the end of Q318 (September 30, 2018). Where is the stock market headed for the rest of the year? At this time our Short-Term indicator is Negative, while our Medium-Term and Long-Term indicators are both pointing to Positive. That means we are being cautious even though the stock market has been making some good gains of late. The Short-Term indicator could turn Positive any day. If it does we will employ our managed assets in the way our models call for. One thing we don’t want is to be emotional about anything having to do with money. It always… and I do mean always lead to bad performance. So we will listen to our research and continue to refine our process, just as we have done lately. Quite frankly, I’m looking forward to the rest of this year.